Dampak Popularitas Shopee dan Tokopedia di Google Trends terhadap Pergerakan Saham E-Commerce Indonesia (GOTO)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33751/jmp.v14i1.84Keywords:
Google Trends, GOTO, Value at Risk, VolatilityAbstract
The Impact of the Popularity of Shopee and Tokopedia on Google Trends on the Movement of Indonesian E-Commerce Stocks (GOTO) The integration of Big Data analytics into financial decision-making has become increasingly critical in the digital economy era, where online search behavior is often viewed as an early proxy for consumer economic decisions. This study aims to investigate whether internet search volume indices for e-commerce platforms Shopee and Tokopedia, extracted from Google Trends, hold predictive power over the performance and risk of PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO) stock. Utilizing daily data from 2022 to 2024, the research employs a quantitative framework integrating financial statistics and modern investment theory, incorporating Multiple Regression Analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), and Value at Risk (VaR). Empirical results reveal that GOTO is a highly aggressive asset, evidenced by a Beta (β) of 2.18, indicating price sensitivity more than double that of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) fluctuations. A key finding of this study surprisingly demonstrates that Google Trends search popularity does not have a statistically significant effect on GOTO’s stock returns. This challenges the popular retail sentiment hypothesis, suggesting that technology stock price formation in Indonesia is driven more by fundamental corporate factors, corporate actions, and macroeconomic capital market dynamics rather than mere public search intensity. Furthermore, risk analysis highlights extreme volatility exposure, with a daily downside risk reaching 6.68% at a 95% confidence level using historical simulation methods. The study concludes that while Big Data offers new perspectives, traditional risk management and portfolio diversification remain paramount to mitigate the systematic risks of technology stock investments.References
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