Analisis Perbandingan Forecasting Kebutuhan Obat Esensial Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Pada Divisi Farmasi Rumah Sakit Pusat Pertamina Jakarta
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33751/jmp.v14i1.31Keywords:
Drug Forecasting, SES, ARIMA, Forecast Accuracy, Inventory ManagementAbstract
Comparative Analysis of Forecasting Essential Drug Needs Using Single Exponential Smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Methods at the Pharmacy Division of Pertamina Central Hospital Jakarta
This study aims to measure the accuracy of the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods for forecasting essential drugs at Pertamina Central Hospital to optimize inventory management. The research objects include Sanmol 500 mg, Curacil 500 mg, and Tiaryt 200 mg using historical data from 2021–2025 evaluated based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The analysis results show that the ARIMA (1,0,0) method has the best performance for Sanmol 500 mg with a MAPE of 29.66% and an estimated 2026 demand of 5,191 units/month. Conversely, the SES method proved superior for Curacil 500 mg and Tiaryt 200 mg because it produced the lowest MSE and MAD values, with an estimated 2026 Curacil demand of 67 units/month on average. This study concludes that no single method is superior for all drugs, and therefore recommends the use of each preferred method as a reference for 2026 procurement planning to ensure budget efficiency and stock availability.
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